Ross McKitrick

… But in recent years a strand of economic literature has argued that warming not only negatively affects the level of economic activity, but also the rate of income growth. This matters because when conducting an analysis over a 100-year time span, small changes in the growth rate can compound over a century and result in large total changes.

… Dozens of different models all fit the data about equally well, and they could not rule out that the best ones do not include any role for temperature in economic growth. There was some evidence that warming is good for growth up to 13.4 degrees Celsius, but the positive and negative effects were not statistically significant.

… Now we come up against the challenge that policymakers seem to find it easier to deal with gloomy certainty then optimistic uncertainty.

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